Venture Beat has a pretty standard report on someone else’s report on made up numbers (projections) for ad spending on social networks: Social Network Ad Spending Projections Take a Dip.

Bar charts and tables with numbers follow the headline. What I thought was interesting wasn’t the projections, but the assumption baked in:

The bulls of social networking, like widget-maker Slide’s chief executive, Max Levchin, already see themselves as more engaging than television. But in order to prove themselves to advertisers on a large scale, they’ll need to bring better metrics to the table than traditional media can offer, and that proven forms of online advertising like search ads can even better offer.

Wrong. People make decisions based on faith, not reason. The numbers are just a way to wallpaper a belief.

Until the folks controlling advertising spending feel like social network ads do something, or until they have to follow the herd, spending will be modest and experimental and the first thing they cut from their budget.

I don’t remember where I read this but it’s stuck with me: no one ever got fired for running another television ad.

We are in very uncertain, volatile, changing times in advertising. And so I believe people will be even more conservative than in high times.

Of course, this means that those taking the risks will see even better returns. They’ll be less competition. They’ll be more different in the marketplace. They’ll learn more, faster and be further ahead once risk-taking once again becomes more fashionable.

Exactly this pattern happened through 2001 to 2004, the Internet bust years. And the folks who stuck with what made sense are way ahead today. Those that lagged behind are even further behind.